UFC on ESPN+ 39: Andre Fili vs. Bryce Mitchell odds, picks and prediction
In a featherweight bout on the main card, Andre Fili and Bryce Mitchell meet at UFC on ESPN+ 39 Saturday at the UFC's APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Fili (21-7) checks into the octagon standing one inch taller than his counterpart, while he has a four-inch reach advantage. He also has a 3.90 significant strikes landed per minute to just 2.05 for Mitchell (13-1), although the latter is much better with a 59.76 to 36.38 significant strikes-accuracy percentage. Both fighters look for takedowns, too, with Fili edging Mitchell 2.71 to 2.13 in takedown average, but Mitchell is much more efficient with a 2.74 submission average to just 0.18 for Fili.
Mitchell is 3-0 since making his UFC debut, including an impressive unanimous-decision win over Charles Rosa at UFC 249 last time out. Two of his three fights at the UFC level, and four of his past six pro fights overall have ended up going the distance. If he is able to get it to the canvas, he is 9-1 via submission in his 14 career professional bouts, and the rear-naked choke and triangle choke are his specialties.
The veteran Fili bounced back from a disappointing unanimous-decision loss to Sodiq Yusuff at UFC 246, posting a split-decision win over Charles Jourdain on June 13 in his most recent outing. He has won three of his past four bouts, and eight of his past nine fights have ended up being decided by the judges' cards.
Andre Fili vs. Bryce Mitchell betting odds
MITCHELL ( -152) is a solid play straight up on the 2-way fight result line, as he won't cost you a ton. He has been strong since arriving at the UFC level, and "Thug Nasty" will be especially pumped wearing his camo shorts into the octagon. As long as he can avoid the big punch from Fili (+125), who has won 43 percent of his pro fights by knockout, Mitchell will be in good shape.
Getting more specific, playing MITCHELL BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION ( +187) pays well. He has registered four total takedowns in his past two fights, and he'll look to get Fili off his feet as soon as possible. Mitchell will try to velcro himself to Fili and control on the ground as much as possible. And since you're going with Mitchell inside the distance, take UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS ( +117) for a nice value.
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