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As National Weather Service hydrologists today released their first long-range probablistic flood outlook for the Red River and its tributaries this spring – including the Red Lake River in Crookston – all you have to do is take a look outside to know that there’s still plenty of winter left, and the flood outlook could easily be ramped up.
But, for now, in a radical change from the past couple years, the long-range outlook calls for not much risk of major flooding up and down the Red River Valley.
It’s not just the lack of snowfall this winter, either, that’s contributing to the low-risk outlook at this stage, it’s the “extremely” dry fall that preceded this winter, another rarity in recent years. Typically over the past few years, wet falls have led to saturated soils at freeze-up, meaning that runoff from the spring snow melt wouldn’t soak into the ground and instead lead to overground flooding and rising rivers. But when the snow starts to melt this spring, the half-inch or so of actual water in the snowpack is expected to, for the most part, soak into the soil.
It’s so dry, in fact, that “moderate drought” and even some “severe drought” conditions are permeating much of the Red River Valley, hydrologists say.
So what’s the Red Lake River expected to do? As of now, NWS hydrologists say there’s a 21 percent chance the river in Crookston will reach a level of 15 feet, which is the “minor flooding” stage. That’s the stage that the river would flood if there were no levees in place. With much of the town now protected by a new levee system, the protection level is around 30 feet. In Jerome’s Addition, where flood control work is currently underway, in the neighborhood yet to be completed the protection level is in the 25-26 foot range. As for moderate flooding and major flooding of the Red Lake River in town, there’s a 1 percent chance and a less than 1 percent chance at this point, respectively. Other NWS data indicate there’s a 90 percent chance the river here will reach a depth of 9.7 feet, and the percentages decline as the crests increase, to the point that there’s a 10 percent chance the Red Lake River will crest at 19 feet.
The next long-range spring food outlook will be relesaed on Feb. 16, followed by another one on March 1.
As National Weather Service hydrologists today released their first long-range probablistic flood outlook for the Red River and its tributaries this spring – including the Red Lake River in Crookston – all you have to do is take a look outside to know that there’s still plenty of winter left, and the flood outlook could easily be ramped up.
But, for now, in a radical change from the past couple years, the long-range outlook calls for not much risk of major flooding up and down the Red River Valley.
It’s not just the lack of snowfall this winter, either, that’s contributing to the low-risk outlook at this stage, it’s the “extremely” dry fall that preceded this winter, another rarity in recent years. Typically over the past few years, wet falls have led to saturated soils at freeze-up, meaning that runoff from the spring snow melt wouldn’t soak into the ground and instead lead to overground flooding and rising rivers. But when the snow starts to melt this spring, the half-inch or so of actual water in the snowpack is expected to, for the most part, soak into the soil.
It’s so dry, in fact, that “moderate drought” and even some “severe drought” conditions are permeating much of the Red River Valley, hydrologists say.
So what’s the Red Lake River expected to do? As of now, NWS hydrologists say there’s a 21 percent chance the river in Crookston will reach a level of 15 feet, which is the “minor flooding” stage. That’s the stage that the river would flood if there were no levees in place. With much of the town now protected by a new levee system, the protection level is around 30 feet. In Jerome’s Addition, where flood control work is currently underway, in the neighborhood yet to be completed the protection level is in the 25-26 foot range. As for moderate flooding and major flooding of the Red Lake River in town, there’s a 1 percent chance and a less than 1 percent chance at this point, respectively. Other NWS data indicate there’s a 90 percent chance the river here will reach a depth of 9.7 feet, and the percentages decline as the crests increase, to the point that there’s a 10 percent chance the Red Lake River will crest at 19 feet.
The next long-range spring food outlook will be relesaed on Feb. 16, followed by another one on March 1.
